Wildfires Valparaiso

Prediction of Wildfires Using Satellite Imagery

Wildfires

Wildfires are a significant environmental and social challenge in Chile, impacting its diverse ecosystems and communities. Chile's unique geography, characterized by vast forests, mountainous regions, and varying climatic conditions, makes it particularly vulnerable to wildfires. These fires are often fueled by a combination of factors, including prolonged droughts, high temperatures, and strong winds, which create ideal conditions for rapid fire spread. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Chile have increased, leading to substantial ecological damage, loss of biodiversity, and economic losses. Additionally, wildfires pose a significant threat to human lives and property, necessitating robust strategies for prevention, preparedness, and response.

NDVI

The type of vegetation significantly influences the occurrence and behavior of wildfires. Different vegetation types have varying levels of flammability, fuel load, and moisture content, which affect how easily a fire can start and spread. For example, dry grasses and shrubs can ignite quickly and spread fire rapidly, while dense forests with high leaf litter and underbrush can sustain more intense and longer-lasting fires. Certain vegetation, such as eucalyptus or pine, contains oils and resins that are highly flammable, increasing the risk of severe fires. Conversely, wetland vegetation and deciduous forests with higher moisture content are less prone to burning. Understanding the relationship between vegetation types and wildfire risk is crucial for effective fire management and prevention strategies

Digital Elevation Model & Slopes

A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) provides detailed information about the terrain's topography; these factors significantly influence wildfire behavior, as fires tend to spread more rapidly uphill due to preheating. Steep slopes can accelerate fire spread and increase its intensity, while valleys and ridges can alter wind patterns, affecting the fire's direction and speed. By incorporating DEM data into wildfire prediction models, it is possible to improve the accuracy of fire behavior forecasts, enhance risk assessments, and develop more effective fire management and response strategies.
Layers
  • Digital Elevation
    Model
  • Slopes
Layers
  • Temperature
  • Wind

Temperature and wind

Temperature and wind are critical factors influencing the occurrence and behavior of wildfires. High temperatures can dry out vegetation, making it more flammable and easier to ignite. Prolonged periods of heat can create conditions where even a small spark can start a large fire. Wind plays a significant role in spreading wildfires by carrying embers over long distances, igniting new fires ahead of the main blaze. It also increases the oxygen supply to the fire, intensifying its heat and speed. Strong, gusty winds can change the fire's direction unpredictably, complicating firefighting efforts. Understanding the relationship between temperature, wind, and wildfires is essential for predicting fire behavior and implementing effective fire prevention and control measures.

Model

Model Wildfire

Predictions metrics - negative class

precision recall f1-score support accuracy
0 0.944182 0.935333 0.939736 1067.0 NaN
1 0.935933 0.944705 0.940299 1067.0 NaN
accuracy NaN NaN NaN NaN 0.940019
macro avg 0.940057 0.940019 0.940017 2134.0 NaN
weighted avg 0.940057 0.940019 0.940017 2134.0 NaN

Wildfires Predictions

Layers



Year:


  • Wildfire Nivel 8
  • Wildfire Nivel 9

DATES

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hesotop@ine.gob.cl
kilehmannm@ine.gob.cl
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Project 192 - Chile Mexico Cooperation Fund: "Development of an open source technological platform aimed at the integration of various sources of information to improve the use of the products of statistical offices"